NBA Early Preseason Takeaways

The NBA Preseason is officially upon us.  The Boston Celtics and the Denver Nuggets squared off in Abu Dhabi in a two-game series to kick things off while every other team will take the court by the end of the week. Veterans will be logging limited minutes or receive the “DNP – Coach’s Decision” designation, while a lot of players will be competing to make a regular season roster. Given that, gleaning a lot of pertinent information from box scores and some games on NBA TV is likely a futile exercise. But it does help formulate some questions that teams are going to have to begin to answer by the end of the month. So, here is a list of my top three opinions & questions.

1.)   Denver Will Take Another Step Back

Does losing both preseason games to Boston mean anything? No, it does not. Winning those games would not have changed my opinion on this either. The reality is despite having arguably the best player in the world in Nikola Jokic, the Nuggets do not have enough pieces around him to make another championship run. If they were able to play the Los Angeles Lakers every series that would be another story. Unfortunately for Denver, that will not be the case.

Jamal Murray is an all-star caliber player, but he has not consistently been able to re-capture the magic in the playoffs that he did in the NBA bubble back in 2020. Murray averaged just 18.4 points per game in the Western Conference semifinals against the Minnesota Timberwolves last year and was not overly efficient either. He has performed well in other series since 2020, but teams are starting to have a better idea of how to defend the two-man action involving him and Jokic, reducing his individual effectiveness. Not to mention that Murray has battled injuries over the last four seasons.

Aaron Gordon is a lob threat and works out of the dunker spots when Jokic and Murray run their two-man action. Gordon is an above average facilitator, and you can run some offense through him. He is relatively efficient on a limited number of shots but is not a consistent three-point threat. The Nuggets needs Gordon on the floor for his defense above anything else.

Michael Porter Jr. is viewed as the third scoring option. Porter is as streaky as they come as a shooter, capable of being inferno hot or ice cold from night to night. A straight-line driver that is not going to make plays for his teammates with a live dribble, he also is best suited working off the two-man action of Jokic and Murray.

Christian Braun represents more upside than the departed Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and will have plenty of chances to prove that as he figures to join the starting lineup. But Braun is not a shot creator which means the loss of Reggie Jackson limits Denver to Murray and the mercurial Russell Westbrook as the players on the roster than can make plays off-the-bounce.

That was the root of the problem last year. If teams can disrupt that two-man game, which is still easier said than done, it is very unlikely that the Nuggets have another path to win a series as they do not have any other players that can consistently create offense for someone else. Limited amounts on-ball variability is never a good thing, and Denver did very little to address that.

2.)   Will the Memphis Grizzlies be a Top Four Team in the Western Conference?

Based on the final regular season standings from 2023-2024, Memphis would need to win roughly 23 more games this year to put themselves in position to be a top four team in the West. Not the smallest of tasks, but a healthy Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., Marcus Smart, and Brandon Clarke could easily spark a drastic turnaround. Keep in mind, two seasons ago the Grizzlies finished second in the conference standings.

While Memphis struggled mightily last year, Desmond Bane took another step forward in terms of creating offense. Despite playing just half the season, Bane was at the top of opposing scouting reports when he was available. He will not have to shoulder that load by himself this year but is more than capable of doing so for long stretches.

Luke Kennard became a focal point of the offense at times. Kennard did not maintain his absurd 54% three-point shooting from 2022-2023 but landed at a very respectable 45%. He will likely return to a catch-and-shoot role and have the benefit of playing off the scoring gravity and shot creation abilities of the Morant and Bane. I expect Kennard to shoot closer to 48% because of that.

Santi Aldama, GG Jackson II, and Vince Williams Jr. all averaged double-digits in the scoring column last season. That is unlikely to continue with all the returning players but all three have now logged meaningful minutes while figuring out how they can effectively score at the NBA level. That carries value.

Rookie Zach Edey is generating a ton of buzz this fall and is considered by many to be in pole position to win Rookie of the Year. In summary:  The Grizzlies are healthy and now deeper with young talent with a lot of experience under their belts. When you factor in that both Los Angeles teams either stayed stagnant – Lakers – or got worse – Clippers – and the Golden State Warriors lost Klay Thompson without making a significant addition, one might assume that the old guard is on their way out while a young and somewhat proven team like Memphis is primed to take their place.

3.)   Which Team Will Fall Out of Playoff Contention this Year?

With more teams now being in playoffs than not because four teams in each conference end up in the play-in scenarios, there are several teams that could easily slide out of that position this year. But saying that all eight of those teams are in danger this season would be a lazy answer. Instead, I want to focus on the twelve teams that truly “made” the playoffs. 

The Clippers seemed primed to drop out of the top six in the West. Losing Paul George was a huge blow. Especially, when you consider Kawhi Leonard’s availability and James Harden being well passed his prime at this point. Leonard played in 68 games last year, his highest total since 2016-2017. At age 33 with a lengthy history of being injured, there is a good chance he plays less than that this season.

Harden should be remembered as one of the most prolific scorers of his generation. But his best days are clearly behind him. Never known for defense, Harden, now 35-years-old and entering his 16th year, is not going to be able to do enough on the offensive end to make up for his matador style defense. Gone are the days where he would draw a foul and parade to the free throw line.

Not nearly as big a factor as Leonard’s health or Harden’s decline, LA also lost Westbrook to the Nuggets. An inefficient 11.1 points per game is not the hardest thing to make up but I do not think that Terance Mann or Bones Hyland will make that up in the aggregate. The Clippers are another team that lost key players and were unable to fill those voids.