Path to the No. 1 overall pick: Missouri WR Luther Burden

It’s been 28 years since Keyshawn Johnson was taken No. 1 overall as a wide receiver. Even as the league has shifted toward a greater emphasis on the passing game, the position does not get a tremendous amount of early draft respect. Since 2000, only 13 WRs have been taken in the top 5 picks. In the last three drafts, only 3 have been taken in the top 10. Yet, Luther Burden is being hyped as a consensus top 5 selection. Could he defy the odds and be taken No. 1? 

As a Recruit

A consensus five star, only 247Sports ranked Burden outside the top 10 (No. 14). They also were the only site to not recognize him as the top receiver in the class (No. 2 behind Evan Stewart). An early commitment to Oklahoma, he reopened his recruitment prior to the start of his senior season – citing the desire to play in the SEC (the irony). With a top three of Georgia, Alabama, and Missouri, he opted to stay home in the hopes of building something special with the Tigers.

In College

As a freshman, Burden lived up to his billing. He played in all 13 games, starting 10, and hauled in 45 catches for 375 yards and 6 touchdowns. Additionally, he was also used as a punt returner and carried the ball 18 times for 88 yards and 2 touchdowns. As a sophomore, he was more locked in on receiving duties and was a star for the shockingly 11-2 Missouri Tigers. After accumulating 1212 yards and 9 touchdowns, he was a Second-Team All American and First-Team All-SEC performer. Notably, his yards per catch increased nearly 6 yards between Year 1 and Year 2.

Skill Set

A thickly built but shorter wide receiver, Burden is an elite slot option who dominated as a sophomore. He has the physicality, aggression, vertical, and strength to make a play on the ball in the vein of a taller prospect. He’s got excellent hands and is a good blocker. Additionally, there’s some position versatility on whether he can line up inside or outside, and he could add value in the return game. His primary strength is what he can do with the ball in his hands, and he is stellar after-the-catch. 

Path to No. 1

It’s difficult to make the case for a wide receiver at #1 overall. It’s really difficult to make the case for a sub six-foot wide receiver to be taken at the top. For Burden to make the case for himself, he’s going to need to be even more productive. Last season, he had 1200+ yards for 9 TDs. Last year’s No. 4 overall pick, Marvin Harrison Jr. – who had a much better physical profile to be taken No. 1 – put together back-to-back 1200+ yard seasons with 14 TDs each year.

The bigger difference came in production against big time competition. Harrison pulled in 100+ yards in six Big Ten games, including Michigan and Penn State, in his pre-draft season. Last year, only three of Burden’s 100+ yard games came against SEC competition. Against the three toughest teams Missouri played (Ohio State, UGA, and Tennessee), Burden only managed 94 yards. That will have to change in order him to be considered for #1. Working in his favor is the shift toward highly paid wide receivers in the NFL. Of the six non-quarterbacks in the top 25 for highest salary, four are wide receivers (the other two are DL). Drafting a receiver at No. 1 has never made more sense. While he cannot help his height, ELITE production could put him in the conversation, but he will still need help.

I would expect the Tiger to really only be in the discussion if a team that does not need a quarterback lands the top selection and none of the top quarterback prospects are seen as particularly desirable (meaning, there’s not a huge demand among teams looking to move up).