Penn State Draft Prospects Key to Beating Ohio State

Penn State fans can cite from memory the #1 criticism of the James Franklin era. He can never beat Michigan or Ohio State. They don’t have to worry about beating the Wolverines in 2024 because they are not on Penn State’s schedule. If the Nittany Lions are to defeat the Buckeyes for the first time since the thrilling 24-21 victory in 2016, it will be because Penn State players eligible for the 2025 NFL Draft stepped up and impacted the outcome.

On paper the teams appear remarkably similar. Each features very fast and aggressive defenses that smother opposing offenses. They each rely on the running game to set the tone for the offensive. The Buckeyes offense features more explosive playmakers, especially at wide receiver. The Nittany Lions will have the advantage at quarterback but only if Drew Allar can play through a knee injury suffered in the team’s victory over Wisconsin. The game will likely depend on the defenses. Both squads top rated players come primarily from that side of the ball.

For Penn State, the tone will be set up front. Junior star edge rushers Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton will face a banged up Ohio State offensive line that has lost star OL Josh Simmons, who projects as a second round pick in next spring’s NFL Draft. Fellow lineman Zen Michalski is questionable for Saturday’s game. If Michalski is unable to go, the Nittany Lions should have an easier time generating pressure with Carter and Dennis-Sutton. The big question being Dennis-Sutton’s own health. He pulled a muscle late in the first half of the Wisconsin game. He attempted to play a handful of snaps to begin the second half but was eventually removed. His availability will be one of the more closely watched storylines ahead of Saturday’s kickoff.

Any successful pressure generated by the edge rushers will be contingent of Defensive Coordinator Tom Allen’s players putting Ohio State in long yardage situations. That must be accomplished by trying to limit the running game. The Buckeyes might give the Nittany Lions bad memories of last year’s loss to Michigan where the two headed attack of Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards bulldozed Penn State so thoroughly that the Wolverines did not complete a pass in the second half. Ohio State boasts a similar one-two punch in Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson. If Penn State has any hopes of containing the Ohio State ground game, emerging junior Zane Durant will be the lynchpin. If he can establish interior pressure, he can force the runners to bounce outside where the deep pool of ends and edges will be looking to corral the Buckeye rushers. Durant disrupting the middle will take away blockers from the exterior of the offensive line and further assist the attack of Carter and Dennis-Sutton.

Because of the talented Ohio State receiving corps, led by projected first round pick Emeka Egbuka and freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith, the defensive backfield might have a long day if they are not prepared adequately. Junior Cam Miller and redshirt senior Jalen Kimber will shoulder the bulk of the shutdown expectations. If they have a successful day, each can elevate their stock from priority free agent signing to a later round selection. Their task will be made easier with the presence of senior safety Jaylen Reed, Reed has been all over the field and is effective in both run and pass defense. His pick six against Wisconsin completely changed the momentum of that game. Reed is another player who’s draft stock would greatly improve with a big game against the Buckeyes. The Nittany Lions will be without standout junior and top safety prospect Kevin Winston, Jr.

The Ohio State running backs are not just pure rushers. They are very capable receivers out of the backfield. The Penn State linebackers will have their hands full with the dynamic duo. Senior LB Kobe King is the play caller for the defense. The twin brother of Green Bay Packers practice squad member Kalen, Kobe is cerebral, athletic, and instinctive. He and fellow senior linebacker Dom DeLuca have a nose for the ball and make smart plays. The Ohio State game presents them with the opportunity to show scouts they posses the ability to be more than special teams aces at the next level.

If the defense holds up their end of the bargain and slows the Buckeye 41.3 point-per-game attack, the offense faces a steep challenge in the Buckeyes stout defense. Numerous Nittany Lion gameplans has been destroyed by Ohio State OLB and Edge rushers creating turnovers. This defense is constructed no differently. Ohio State features four players ranked in the Top 40 of the nflmockdraftdatabase.com rankings. Edge rushers Jack Sawyer, 31st, and J.T. Tuimoloau, 35th, have the ability to force the quarterback into poor decisions and turnovers. DL Tyleik Williams, 37th, is a disruptive force from within who can ruin both running and passing plays. CB Denzel Burke, 34th, has had a disappointing season considering his pedigree. However, he is more than capable of shutting down the best receivers in the nation. Penn State does not posses elite receivers, so this is Burke’s chance to polish his resume in one of the most watched games of the season.

The wildcard for this game is the Penn State quarterback situation, specifically involving the health of Allar. After his injury at Wisconsin, Allar took the field for second half warmups but Franklin refused to let him re-enter the game. Allar was seen at media availability on Wednesday on the practice field. He was wearing a knee brace and did not engage in any contact drills, although that is standard for Franklin in that setting. The 2023 Ohio State game was probably the low point of Allar’s first season as a starter. He was tentative and made a host of bad decisions. He appeared completely overwhelmed. New Offensive Coordinator Andy Kotelnicki has reinvented Allar. He is aggressive, decisive, and has established himself as a leader on the offense. One of the biggest changes Kotelnicki made was having Allar be more willing to run the ball to keep defenses honest. Even if he is able to play Saturday, the knee brace will limit that mobility, If Allar is unable to go, junior backup Beau Pribula will get the start.

Regardless of who is starting, the offensive line will be essential to the success of any quarterback. Penn State had three members of their offensive line move onto the NFL after last season. The members of this year’s unit are younger and enter 2024 with minimal game reps. That does not mean they are not as good. They feature a couple of youngsters, Anthony Donkoh and Cooper Cousins, who have the potential to garner significant draft interest in the future. This offensive line has been more consistent than last year’s, and it has shown itself in a return to a punishing rushing offense. Redshirt senior Nick Dawkins is the unquestioned leader and general in the trenches. He is capable of following other Nittany Lions such as Juice Scruggs and Hunter Nourzad by elevating his draft stock in the post-season evaluation process.

The primary beneficiaries of the solid line play has been junior running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. The pair have rebounded nicely from a disappointing sophomore campaign. Their ability to grind out plus yardage on first down and to control the clock will go a long way in deciding the outcome of this game. Kotelnicki has integrated them, particularly Singleton, into the passing attack. This has prevented opposing defenses from double covering Nittany Lion receivers. The draft future for Singleton and Allen are unclear. Both are eligible to enter the draft. With NFL teams deemphasizing rushers, one or both may opt to return.

The breakout star of the receivers has been tight end Tyler Warren. He is expected to be named a semifinalist for the John Mackey Award as the nation’s best collegiate tight end. He has done it all in Kotelnicki’s offense. He has served as a receiver, running back, and quarterback. He even snapped the ball on a play that resulted in his catching a touchdown. We will be the focus of Ohio State’s defensive efforts. One can presume that Kotelnicki has more surprises for Warren in his bag of tricks. 

If there is one player on the Nittany Lions that has had Saturday’s date circled for months, it is former Ohio State WR Julian Fleming. Fleming originally spurned the Nittany Lions as a five star recruit from Pennsylvania in favor of the Buckeyes. Fleming was buried behind superstars like Marvin Harrison, Jr. and decided to use his final year of eligibility with his former suitor. His time with Penn State has been a roller coaters ride. He has been plagued with ill-timed drops and struggling to consistently get open. He has made clutch catches at the direst of times. His two fourth down, fourth quarter, drive sustaining catches were a large component of Penn State’s come from behind overtime victory against Southern Cal. He is credited with being a calming, accountable presence in the young receiver room. He does not have a high prospect ranking, but a big revenge game might change that in scouts’ minds.

It is unclear which of these Nittany Lions will be back for another run at Big Ten and College Football Playoff success. Of the eligible underclassmen, only Carter is considered an certain early entrant to the NFL Draft. Winston’s draft status is clouded by the mystery surrounding his absence.  Allar’s play this season is starting to generate a groundswell of draft buzz. Playing and putting up big numbers against a formidable Ohio State defense might produce first round speculation. In this day of NIL, it is impossible to know who stays and who goes.

In a sense, Penn State is playing with house money. Barring a complete collapse in the coming weeks, their win over Wisconsin all but locked them into the College Football Playoff. A loss to Ohio State, provided it is not by a substantial margin, should land the Nittany Lions an opening round home playoff berth and the revenues associated with hosting that game. A win over the Buckeyes should punch their ticket to the Big Ten title game, likely against Oregon. A win like that would be good for recruiting. It would be a priceless reward to the psyches of fans and staff alike.