Previewing March Madness. Where Will Carolina Teams be Dancing?

In six weeks, the longest unofficial national holiday begins. Near noon on March 21st, most workplace productivity comes to a grinding halt. College class attendance drops dramatically. Bars reach standing room only capacity. Friendly office banter is replaced with mean spirit trash talk. Blood pressure levels reach dangerously elevated levels. Grown men drop to the floor when an 18-year-old kid rims out a three point shot at the buzzer costing his team an opportunity to advance, and your bracket to be busted. And, of course, Alice, the Assistant Director of Human Resources, who knows nothing about sports, will win the company bracket challenge. Again. Welcome to March Madness.

The days of the bluebloods running roughshod over the field are gone. (Duke Invitational, anyone?). One and done freshman phenoms have given way to teams with heavy junior and senior profiles. The field has a greater level of parity than it has in generations. Teams seeded in the teens bouncing teams in the top four no longer cause a shock to the system. Cinderella now has a knack of sticking around the ball well after midnight. One thing that has not changed is the proliferation of teams from the Carolinas comprising part of the field. There are teams that will stick around only long enough to be introduced. Others have the capacity to be bracket disrupters. An elite few have expectations of making it to Phoenix and the Final Four. All squads have worked hard and brought joy and pride to their schools and their fanbases.

Who makes the Big Dance and where teams will play won’t be official until selection Sunday on March 17th. That day will be lucky for many and a curse for others. For now, we will put on our wizard hats, look into the future, and try and prognosticate the fate of the Carolina teams. The godfather of bracketology, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, was the source of teams, seeding, and conference bid numbers. The NCAA projected seeds are in parentheses.

American Athletic Conference (2 bids): UNC Charlotte (14th seed), 8-2/14-8. Eastern Carolina, 4-6, 11-12.

Lunardi has the 49ers listed as an automatic qualifier meaning he anticipates them winning the AAC Tournament. Should they be upset during the tournament, it is unlikely they would make the field of 64. ECU would need to win the tournament, a tall task, to qualify.

Atlantic Coast Conference (4 bids): North Carolina (1st seed), 10-2/18-5, Duke (3rd seed), 8-3/17-5, Wake Forest, 7-4/15-7, NC State, 7-5/ 15-8, Clemson (8th seed), 5-6/15-7.

The Tarheels’ recent loss to Clemson has not hurt their projection of a #1 seed. They should not be impacted by a close loss at Duke to end the regular season or a loss in the ACC Tournament.

However, if they are not competitive against the Blue Devils and lose early in the tournament, that #1 seed could be in peril. Duke has helped themselves down the stretch. Continued solid play, a win over UNC at Cameron, and a deep ACC Tournament run could raise Duke’s seeding. Even their “bad” loss against Pitt is looking batter as that squad has dramatically improved their play and reputation. Lunardi considers Wake Forest the first team currently on the outside looking in. The Demon Deacons need to reach at least the tournament semifinals to have any hope of making the field of 64. NC State has put themselves into the position of good but not good enough. The Wolfpack needs to win the ACC Tournament. Clemson is one of the eyebrow-raising teams of the projected field. Their raw numbers are average. However, their recent win over North Carolina, and other measurables that the selection committee relies upon, currently has the Tigers tentatively dancing.

Big South Conference (1 bid): High Point (14th seed), 9-1/20-5, UNC Asheville, 8-2/16-9, Gardiner-Webb, 6-3/11-3, Winthrop, 6-4/15-10, Charleston Southern, 4-6/8-15, Presbyterian, 3-7/11-14, University of South Carolina Upstate, 3-7/8-15.

The Panthers sit atop the Big South standings. Continue to take care of business and win the conference tournament and they will make the Big Dance. If they get upset, their excellent season will come crashing down. There is no in between. The good news for High Point is that they are hosting the Big South Tournament and should be the ones cutting down the nets at the Quebein Arena.

Coastal Athletic Association (1 bid): UNC Wilmington, 7-3/16-6, College of Charleston, 7-3/16-7, Campbell, 5-5/11-2, North Carolina A&T, 5-5/7-16.

If a team from the CAA is to make the Big Dance, they will have to win the CAA Tournament. Both UNC Wilmington and Charleston have a chance to make the conference final. If a team is in the final, it can win the final. Conference leader Drexel has no guarantee of marching through the field in Washington, so hope for a slot when the NCAA Tournament commences is not misplaced.

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (1 bid): North Carolina Central, 5-2/13-9, South Carolina State, 4-3/8-15.

The winner of the MEAC Conference championship is ticketed to be one of the “First Four” teams in the play-in round in Dayton. The Eagles trail conference leader Norfolk State by one game. It is reasonable to expect them to reach the conference final. Win and they become an automatic qualifier.

Southeastern Conference (9 bids): South Carolina, (6th seed), 8-2/20-3.

The Gamecocks are dancing. Currently leading the brutally tough SEC standings, South Carolina will make the field. The question is how high of a side and how close to home will they play? The answers to those questions are under their control. Win the SEC Tournament and that seed will be higher, and their opening round will be close to Columbia. The big concern is how much will the SEC Tournament play take out of the eventual finalists.

Southern Conference (1 bid): UNC Greensboro, 8-2/17-6, Western Carolina, 6-5/17-7, Wofford, 6-5/13-11, Citadel, 1-10/9-15.

Conference leading Samford has not run away from the pack. Like all smaller conferences, the representative in March Madness will be the winner of the Southern Conference Tournament in Asheville. UNC Greensboro, Western Carolina, and even Wofford, have squads good enough to emerge and advance. The league’s representative will have a seed in the teens.

Sunbelt Conference (1 bid): Appalachian State (12th seed), 10-2/19-5, Coastal Carolina, 3-9/6-17.

App State is leading the Sunbelt Conference by one game over Troy, with James Madison and Louisiana one game behind the Trojans. It is not a slam dunk, as it were, that the Mountaineers can count on being a part of March Madness. It is possible that if they were to lose in the Sunbelt Conference Tournament that they could secure an at large bid, but that would require minimal upsets in smaller conferences and the committee looking favorably on App State metrics.

There are still multiple weeks of regular season games to be played. Each game is an opportunity for an upset that results in chaos in the prognostication calculus. Between now and day one of March Madness, there will be loads of drama, heartache, elation, and finger pointing. After Sunday’s Super Bowl, NCAA basketball grabs the spotlight and does not let go until the nets come down in Phoenix on April 8th. Get your pencils and dartboards ready, it is soon time for the greatest sports rollercoaster ride of them all!

Notes: The four “play-in” teams and the 64 teams filed for the Men’s NCAA Basketball Championship will be revealed at 6:00 P.M.EST on CBS on March 17th. ESPN will also have coverage and analysis.