The College Football Playoff Picture

It’s a brand-new world in college football, and this weekend’s games featured some seismic shifts in the upcoming playoff picture. Here’s Draft Nation’s latest look at the teams that could make the Top 12 and the prospects that would benefit most from the opportunity to improve their draft positioning:

1.     Oregon – Draft Nation won’t bet against the Ducks making it to the Big 10 tile game as an undefeated team. Whether they ultimately win a likely contest against Indiana or rematch against Ohio State is certainly a different question, but so far they look like the best team in football. 

Prospect to Watch: WR Evan Stewart – The #8 overall recruit in 2022, Stewart was a standout right away, but inconsistency has been a significant issue.

2.     Georgia – Confidence in picking the SEC Conference Champion is low. The Dawgs have really struggled at times this season, and an upcoming trip to Ole Miss, a matchup against Tennessee, and then an SEC Championship Game would make surviving to the Playoffs as a one loss team quite the accomplishment. 

Prospect to Watch: DE Mykel Williams – An elite talent, Williams is gifted enough to make a push for a Top 10 selection. Scouts will want to see more of what they saw in his dominant performance against Texas, though.

3.     Miami – The Hurricanes are significantly better than every team remaining on the schedule. A projected matchup with SMU for the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship (yeah, still weird) should not be overlooked though. 

Prospect to Watch: QB Cameron Ward – Nobody has made themselves more money this season than the former Incarnate Word superstar. Wins against big time competition in the Playoffs could cement him as a Top 10 selection.

4.     BYU – If you’re looking for holes to punch in the new format, seeing the Cougars get a BYE is likely to provoke mockery. That said, Draft Nation was half-tempted to put Colorado in this spot as the winner of the lackluster, patchwork Big 12. Watch out for Boise State as well. 

Prospect to Watch: DL Tyler Batty – This isn’t exactly a team loaded with NFL talent, but Batty has earned Day 3 consideration over a productive career. 

5.     Notre Dame – After a loss to Northern Illinois, few would have predicted this. However, the Fighting Irish are an interesting case. If they win out, they are likely the #5 seed given how everyone else’s schedule (and likely losses). On the other hand, a single loss and they are out of consideration altogether. 

Prospect to Watch: QB Riley Leonard – Right now, the former Blue Devil has failed to help his draft prospects this season. However, with highly rated QBs seeing their stocks tumble, Leonard has the ability to build some real momentum with a strong showing.

6.     Ohio State – The Buckeyes will have at least two losses if they aren’t the Big 10 Conference Champion. However, a win over Indiana would be among the best wins of any team. 

Prospect to Watch: WR Emeka Egbuka – He’s been outshone by freshman WR Jeremiah Smith, but his stellar performance this year has put him in the discussion for WR1.

7.     Texas – Arguably, the Longhorns are the 3rd most likely team to land the #1 overall seed (outside of Oregon and Georgia) should they win out. A loss in the SEC Championship Game puts them here. 

Prospect to Watch: QB Quinn Ewers – All options are on the table for the Longhorns’ signal caller. A strong showing the rest of the way could put him back in Top 10 discussions. On the other hand, he could opt to stay in Austin or even transfer somewhere new next season.

8.     Penn State – If the season plays out according to expectations, there’s a real likelihood that the Playoffs could be at least 2/3s SEC and Big 10. The Nittany Lions, due to an unimpressive schedule and lack of signature win, will struggle to make the Top 12 if they lose a 2nd game, though. 

Prospect to Watch: TE Tyler Warren – He’s hauled in an incredible 51 receptions over a season that has firmly put him in round one discussion.

9.     Indiana – Who would have thought this, but the Hoosiers are in control of their own destiny for the #1 overall seed. With an undefeated season that would include wins over Ohio State and likely Oregon, they may make school history. It’s hard to predict them to beat the Buckeyes, though, and a loss there (but wins over Michigan and Purdue) means they end up about here. 

Prospect to Watch: QB Kurtis Rourke – Some sites still rate him as a fringe prospect, but the 6th year senior is now a legitimate Heisman contender and still has an outside shot at earning serious consideration for at least Day 2 consideration if he maximizes upcoming opportunities. 

10.  Tennessee – In this scenario, the Vols fall to the Georgia Bulldogs but close out 10-2 (the remaining schedule: featuring Mississippi State, UTEP, and Vanderbilt is manageable). Josh Heupel’s team should be Playoff bound. 

Prospect to Watch: DE James Pearce Jr. – One of the Draft’s premier edge rushers, Pearce still has an opportunity to flash dominance in his remaining games and assert himself as a high first round draft pick in 2025.

11.  LSU – This is the mark where things get dicier. In this scenario, the Bayou Bengals must beat Alabama and then close with wins over Florida, Vanderbilt, and Oklahoma. There would be no keeping this team out if they can pull that off. P

Prospect to Watch: OT Will Campbell – If he can continue to keep Nussmeier upright, he has a chance to be the #1 OL off the board.

12.  SMU – Here’s the guarantee: no matter how the season plays out, this spot will generate vigorous debate. However, in a scenario where the SMU Mustangs win out, make the ACC Championship Game, and keep it competitive against Miami, they would have the strongest argument for this spot. Their only two losses would be against teams with Playoff Byes, and “quality” wins over Pitt and Louisville should lock them in. 

Prospect to Watch: RB Brashard Smith – This running back class is the best in a long, long time, but Smith is quickly rising up draft boards.