Why the Pirates Should Not Write Off Nick Gonzales

The Pirates made a number of aggressive moves this offseason, and one of them directly impacted Nick Gonzales. Trading six years of Mike Burrows for one year of Brandon Lowe as the headliner was debatable on its own, but it also complicates Gonzales’ path to everyday at-bats. For now, he should open 2026 at shortstop if Konnor Griffin begins in Triple-A. After that, things could get crowded quickly. But as the saying goes, if you hit, you’ll play.

The Pirates took Gonzales 7th overall in 2020 because of the bat. At New Mexico State, he hit .399/.502/.747 over three seasons. Then he went to the Cape Cod League and won MVP with wood bats, which shut down most of the “it’s just the altitude” criticism. Before the pandemic ended the 2020 season, he had 12 home runs in 16 games and an OPS over 1.700. The offensive upside was off the charts

The early pro years weren’t perfect. In 2021 at High-A, he hit 18 homers in 80 games but struck out 27% of the time. In 2022, that number pushed past 30% before a heel injury derailed his season. That stretch knocked him off Top 100 lists and changed the tone around him.

But the more important version of Gonzales showed up after he returned. Over the final stretch in 2022, he hit north of .290 and cut the strikeout rate significantly. His chase rate dropped. His in-zone contact rate climbed back into the mid-to-high 80% range. It looked a lot more like the hitter that scouts thought they were drafting.

When he debuted in 2023, he flashed early and then cooled off, partially due to inconsistent playing time. The Pirates sent him back to Indianapolis in August, and that reset ended up making a major difference. He raised his hands, stood more upright, and cleaned up his barrel path — closer to what he did at New Mexico State. The results spoke for themselves, as hit over .300 the rest of the season in Triple-A, the strikeouts came down, and his overall contact rate improved.

In 2024, after losing the second base job to Jared Triolo in Spring Training, he went back to Indy and forced the issue. He hit over .370 in April and won Player of the Month. When he got called back up, the quality of contact was noticeably better. His hard-hit rate climbed into the low-40% range. His barrel rate ticked up. A month into the call-up, his OPS was over .850.

Even when the surface numbers dipped in July, the approach didn’t collapse, as he came up with many big hits with runners in scoring position. Then a groin injury interrupted things again. He played well once returning from the IL in August and finished 2024 hitting .270 with a .709 OPS, but the bigger takeaway was the contact profile. The strikeout rate continued to trend down. His chase rate was in a much better place. His zone contact rate reached a career high against MLB pitching.

The power hasn’t fully shown up yet, but the foundation is stronger than it was two years ago.

Then came 2025. Gonzales homered on Opening Day and fractured his ankle rounding the bases. He missed over 60 games. Development paused again.

When he returned, he was solid, as he went into the final couple of weeks of September, hitting around .280 with a .720 OPS before a brutal two-week stretch dragged his final line down to a .661 OPS. That slump shaped the perception of his season more than the full sample did.

Over the year, his strikeout rate dropped to 17.9%. A few years ago, he was running strikeout rates north of 30% in the upper minors. Now he’s under 18% in the majors. His whiff rate declined again. His overall contact percentage sat comfortably above league average, while the chase rate stayed under control for someone with such an aggressive approach. That’s not a hitter trending in the wrong direction, even if his end of season slashline looked as if he took a pretty big step back.

The game power hasn’t fully shown up yet at the Major League level, but there are signs it could. His hard-hit rate has steadily climbed. His average exit velocity has ticked up year over year. In multiple stretches, his expected slugging percentage outpaced his actual slugging, suggesting some unfavorable batted-ball variance. If the strikeout rate stays this low and the quality of contact continues to develop, the power doesn’t need to be massive to make him a major contributor to the Pirates.

Defensively, the shortstop concerns feel overstated. Even coming off a fractured ankle, his range graded in the 86th percentile. Defensive Runs Saved didn’t love him in 2025, but range and speed metrics paint a more forgiving picture. His arm isn’t elite, but it’s playable, as it grades out similarly to other very good shortstops such as Jeremy Pena, Trea Turner, and Corey Seager. If he’s healthy, he can do more than just get by there. He was also recently taking ground balls at third base this spring, which could definitely be an option for him to get every day playing time once Griffin arrives.  

The strikeout rate has plummeted yearly. The chase rate has normalized. Zone contact is strong. Hard contact is trending up. Those aren’t the indicators of a player fading; they’re the indicators of someone building a more stable offensive profile.

2026 is an important year. But writing Gonzales off now ignores the trajectory. The bat-to-ball skill is real. The swing decisions are better than they’ve ever been. And the power track record didn’t disappear overnight.

If the Pirates let him play, this looks to be the year he puts it all together.