2025 NBA Draft Prospect- R.J. Davis, North Carolina

Unlike my previous two draft profiles on prospects playing collegiate basketball in the Carolinas – Collin Murray-Boyles and Hunter Sallis – the biggest question surrounding RJ Davis is not whether he has the talent to get drafted next summer but rather will he hear his name called. To that last part, the fifth-year lead guard of the North Carolina Tar Heels has a few things working against him.

For starters, Davis has a listed height of 6’0” which most would assume means he is slightly shorter than that. As of last October, there were only 13 players in the NBA that had listed heights of 6’0”. With 30 teams in the NBA, all of which are allowed to carry a maximum of 18 players at any one time – 15 on the active roster and three on two-way deals – that means there are a total of 540 roster spots across the league. So, only 2.4% of the entire NBA was listed at 6’0” at the beginning of last season, less than one player per team.

Additionally, he will be 23 years old next month. If Davis is fortunate enough to make an NBA roster next fall, he will be 24 years old. While that is perfect for beating up on true freshman in the ACC, that is old for an NBA rookie. I do have a little more to say about this but let us move to assessing if Davis has enough ability and skill to be selected in the 2025 NBA Draft.

Spoiler Alert:  Yes, he brings more than enough to the table to be worthy of drafting. Davis is the reigning ACC Player of the Year and was a consensus First Team All-American in 2023-2024. He led the conference in points (784), points per game (21.1), field goals made (260) and attempted (607), three-pointers made (113) and attempted (284), free throw percentage (88.1%), win shares (6.7) and offensive win shares (4.7), and offensive box plus/minus (7.6). Davis managed to lead the conference in all those categories while tying Chris Bell of the Syracuse Orange for the third lowest turnover percentage in the ACC. Talk about a model of production and efficiency.

He is simply a bucket. One of the things I like about this video is that the first half features Davis working off the ball, and the second half features him with the ball in his hands. That can be attributed to how North Carolina ran their offense, with him closing games for them down the stretch. But it speaks to the versatility that Davis brings in the backcourt.

Beginning at the 1:05 mark, he demonstrates a strong feel for using off-ball screens. Davis cuts from the strong side corner along the baseline, uses a flex screen that serves as the beginning of a staggered screen to free him to the weak side wing. Curling off the screen by Armando Bacot (#5) after receiving the pass immediately applies downhill pressure on a switching Norchad Omier (#15) and sees him get all the way to the basket for the left-handed finish.

In that same vein, starting at the 1:49 mark, Davis hits a floater curling off a down screen from Bacot. Omier is at a much better angle to defend him as he sags off the Bacot screen and positions himself in the paint. But Davis has such a strong offensive feel and faith in his floater (:35 mark as well) that good offense trumps good defense. His size and athleticism limit his ceiling as a three-level scorer, but his floater is a nice weapon at his disposal when he gets two feet in the paint. 

Leading the ACC in triples made is no small feat and one does not accomplish that without having range from the outside. Davis connects from several feet from beyond the arc beginning at the 1:17 and 1:34 marks. Another thing that stands out in the second sequence is that he is also involved in setting off ball screens. Even though Davis does not seek any contact, he shows that he can positively contribute in that way and purposefully moves while exiting those actions to put himself in a position to receive a pass and score.

Equally effective in ball screens, he steps right into a three-pointer starting at the 2:33 mark over a contesting Omier. We also see another step back triple beginning at the 2:13 mark, working out of a ball screen. Davis also hits step backs in the opening clip and starting at the 3:03 mark. Both showcase his talents off the dribble in one-on-one situations against his defender.

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A 24-point performance may seem slightly low for Davis, but I wanted to feature a road game. We again see the step back from beyond the arc (:15 mark), and him closing out the game working out of ball screens (1:23, 1:41, and 2:02 marks). Worth noting, all three of those sequences see Davis working against switches. He does not settle in any of those instances and instead puts his head down and drives the ball. That aggressive mentality is one of the reasons Davis is so efficient, he consistently works to get high percentage shots in advantageous scenarios.

He also demonstrates some of his passing skills in this video. The back-to-back sequences beginning at the :24 mark are both nice reads in two different situations. With all eyes on Davis in transition in the first sequence, he keeps his head up and finds an open Bacot for a layup plus the foul. He executes a beautiful left-handed bullet to Bacot that starts the second sequence. Bacot bobbles the pass and is unable to convert at the rim but as he dribbles to the short corner, Davis cuts down the middle, receives a pass from Bacot and hits a floater over the much taller Jaylan Gainey (#33).

If he was doing all of this at 19 or 20 years old, he would be a late lottery pick. Perhaps even higher. Unfortunately, Davis is an older, undersized guard that is one of the very best players at the collegiate level but will have an uphill battle on his hands to get drafted next summer. Without a doubt he will make an NBA Summer Team roster, and I think he has an outside chance to earn a two-way contract. However, in a deeper draft with players that have higher ceilings, I cannot see Davis hearing his name called during the 2025 NBA Draft.