Ranking NFL long-term quarterback stability from best to worst

We are in the “Season of Hope” as teams yet to play a football game can talk themselves into the idea that their franchise will perform better than expected this year. Rarely are practice reports dire, distraught, and fatalistic. Instead, fanbases, writers, and coaches will do their best to see the positives before ultimately being faced with reality.

That does not change the fact that many fanbases are already looking to the 2025 Draft as a place where hope can be found – especially teams desperate for a new signal caller. Here is our ranking of NFL franchises based on how desperately they need a quarterback:

32 - Kansas City Chiefs 

Patrick Mahomes will turn 29 this year, and there may be an argument that he still has more to prove to earn a spot on the Mt. Rushmore of all-time greats. The trajectory of his career has him on track to be there, not just for the NFL, but in the same discussion as Ruth-Ali-Woods-Jordan-Brady-Gretzky as “the greatest.” Wherever he ends up in that conversation, however, there is nothing he can do for the rest of his career that would lead the Chiefs to choose to go a different direction.

31- Jacksonville Jaguars

With Trevor Lawrence locked up after a five-year deal, the Jags also have former first rounder Mac Jones backing him up. While expectations will continue to rise even in the midst of the daunting AFC (the seven best QB situations ranked here are all from the Conference), Lawrence isn’t going anywhere.

30 - Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals are hoping Burrow returns as the same elite player. However, Jake Browning gives them one of the league’s best backup options.

29 - Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson is one of the elite quarterbacks of the NFL. In parsing out this ranking, the Ravens get dinged for having a mobile signal caller and a lackluster backup situation.

28 - Houston Texans

After one of the great rookie seasons we’ve seen, CJ Stroud will now need to prove he can sustain it.

27 - Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen is an elite arm talent who has led Buffalo back to becoming one of the elite franchises in the league. But, the pressure is going to start mounting on Allen to prove he can beat his counterparts when it matters.

26 - Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers have changed their coach and their front office. Herbert looks elite but hasn’t led the Chargers to become winners – there’s only one thing left to change.

25 - Philadelphia Eagles

With the way he plays the game, Jalen Hurts is set up for injury struggles. After a 2023 in which he had career highs in interceptions and lost fumbles, Hurts is secure… but amongst top quarterbacks, he has the highest likelihood of upcoming insecurity.

24 - Chicago Bears

Caleb Williams could be an absolute superstar in this league, but he has yet to take a snap.

23 - Atlanta Falcons 

With the contract given to Kirk Cousins and the selection of Michael Penix – both questionable moves individually and mocked moves collectively – multiple somebody’s will have gotten fired if the Falcons are looking for a quarterback in the next three years.

22 - San Francisco 49ers

This could be a weird situation. There’s every reason to expect the 49ers and Brock Purdy to be together for a long time. However, he’s due to go from being one of the league’s best deals to being one of the league’s highest paid players. Should he unexpectedly falter in 2024, things could get interesting.

21 - Indianapolis Colts

Anthony Richardson was seen as a raw quarterback but a freakish athlete when he was drafted, and the Colts still gave him the reins right away. Unfortunately, a rookie season that showed flashes was cut short after just four games. There’s reason to believe that Richardson is a star in the making, but there’s also every expectation that, should he struggle, he will be given time to prove that he’s not the guy.

20 - New England Patriots

Robert Kraft has to know to expect patience with the hiring of a 38-year-old head coach and the selection of a 21-year-old quarterback who started for two years at North Carolina. Drake Maye may not start right away, but he will likely be given time to prove whether he’s the long-term future of the franchise.

19 - Detroit Lions

A rejuvenated franchise and one of the NFL’s best stories, it’s hard to see the Lions moving on from Jared Goff. However, despite gaudy numbers, it’s hard to argue that he’s better than a middling NFL quarterback. 

18 - Washington Commanders

Dan Quinn is a veteran NFL coach, and, despite being a rookie, Jayden Daniels threw 1,438 passes at the Power Five level. I cannot imagine the Commanders pulling the plug after a single season, but there will not be the normal level of patience for a Year One pairing.

17 - Carolina Panthers

I was not a fan of Bryce Young as an NFL prospect, and he really struggled in Year One. It’s unlikely that the franchise will look for a replacement after his second season, but he was seen as an “NFL ready” Nick Saban prospect with limited development. If he cannot produce this season, there’s not much reason to think he ever will.

16 - Minnesota Vikings

Whether he beats out Sam Darnold or not, JJ McCarthy is the future of the franchise, and Minnesota knew when they drafted him that he was somewhat unknown. Despite leading Michigan to the National Championship, McCarthy has not been asked to do much over his career. He could be a bust, but it’s hard to see that determination made this year.

15 - Green Bay Packers

It’s very possible that the Packers could be one of the most stable quarterback situations by the end of the season – as they have a young signal caller who played very well last season. However, Jordan Love is a slow start away from having fans anxious. Green Bay is used to elite quarterback play, and Love will have to prove he can sustain it.

14 - Miami Dolphins

This is the portion of the rankings where it is very difficult to see teams here and lower looking to add a quarterback. However, Tua has elite receivers and an elite offensive mind as his coach. If he struggles and is seen as the problem, he’s the most likely to go.

13 - Tennessee Titans

After seizing the opportunity to take Will Levis, who tumbled in the NFL Draft, the Titans found themselves building around him after he became the starter midway through his rookie season. However, the second-round pick completed just 58.4 percent of his passes, had a QBR of 33.2, and went 3-6 over 9 games. He showed enough flashes to see what he can do in a full season starting, but there is not the data to warrant having them ranked lower here.

12 - Arizona Cardinals

With declining production for the struggling franchise, Kyler Murray looked like a star in 2021. Another poor season, however, could lead both sides to find a way to change direction.

11 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield is resilient, but how many people really believe he’s the long-term starter for Tampa Bay? 

10 - Cleveland Browns

The Deshaun Watson trade/contract seems poised to go down as one of the worst in NFL history. While the Browns have significant money tied up in the quarterback who has given them just six games in two seasons, a third disappointing season could make them eager to move on.

9 - New Orleans Saints

At this point, Derek Carr has proven to be a starter that simply cannot keep his fanbase happy. The Saints are semi-committed to him, but a change is not out of the realm of possibility. In fact, the primary reason they aren’t higher is Spencer Rattler may be the route they go post-Carr.

8 - Denver Broncos

Yes, the Broncos selected Bo Nix in the first round, and he is battling Jarrett Stidham for the starting job. However, Stidham is in his sixth year in the league, and Nix is a 24-year-old who started an NCAA record 61 games for Power Five schools – not exactly a typical rookie. If neither show much this season, it’s not hard to envision the Broncos getting eager to make a move.

7 - Los Angeles Rams

Father Time struggled to catch Tom Brady, but Matthew Stafford is no Tom Brady. At 36, Stafford is likely to begin seeing a decline in performance, and the Rams are unlikely to see either Jimmy Garoppolo or Stetson Bennett as the future of the franchise.

6 - New York Giants

Let’s be real – Daniel Jones is a bottom-tier NFL quarterback, and the Giants made a mistake extending him. Despite the financial investment, this is a team that could be looking at a change if 2024 does not go well.

5 - Dallas Cowboys

Right now, the Dak Prescott contract is what drives this ranking. The Cowboys could certainly plummet down the board if they lock up their franchise signal caller for the long-term. If not, they could find themselves ranked higher.

4 - Seattle Seahawks

Geno Smith has enjoyed a fascinating career arc, but he is an aging, middling quarterback who could have fans clamoring for a change if he drops off a bit this season.

3 - New York Jets

Every move made by the Jets screams that they are desperate to start winning. While they hope Aaron Rodgers can provide that for them this season, he will be 41 before the year is over. Even if he bounces back well, one has to assume he does not have “it” for much longer. 

2 - Pittsburgh Steelers

Russell Wilson will turn 36 this season, and even if he looks better than he did with the Broncos, we can expect a significant focus to be on Justin Fields. Assuming the talented former Bear cannot put it together, the Steelers will be in the market for the future.

1 - Las Vegas Raiders

Very few teams can boast a better group of pass catchers than the Silver & Black. Led by Davante Adams, this group will do their best to mask the deficiencies of whoever is throwing them the ball – whether that be Aidan O’Connell or Gardner Minshew. Either way, the franchise is in dire need of a long-term solution at quarterback.